Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
