A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
